碳中和带来什么机遇和影响？The impacts of carbon neutrality？

什么是碳中和？ What is carbon neutrality?

碳中和是指国家、企业、产品、活动或个人在一定时间内直接或间接产生的二氧化碳或温室气体排放总量，通过植树造林、节能减排等形式，以抵消自身产生的二氧化碳或温室气体排放量，实现正负抵消，达到相对“零排放”。

Carbon neutrality refers to the total amount of carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emissions directly or indirectly generated by a country, enterprise, product, activity or individual within a certain period of time, through afforestation, energy saving and emission reduction, etc., to offset the carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas generated by itself to achieve positive and negative offset, to achieve relatively “zero emissions.”

听到碳中和会马上想到这是个环保问题。因为科学家研究，二氧化碳会让地球升温，海平面上升，会威胁未来人类的生存。所以，要碳中和，就是为了保护环境。

Hearing about carbon neutrality immediately thinks that this is an environmental issue. Because of scientists’ research, carbon dioxide will heat the earth and sea levels will rise, which will threaten the survival of human beings in the future. Therefore, to be carbon neutral is to protect the environment.

中国关于碳中和总目标是，力争在2030年实现碳达峰，2060年实现碳中和。

China’s overall goal of carbon neutrality is to strive to achieve carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060.

中国人民银行行长易纲也表示，中国要实现碳达峰、碳中和， 需要的资金规模要百万亿级别。要知道，中国一年的 GDP 刚突破 100 万亿元，可见碳中和这个工程有多大。

Yi Gang, governor of the People’s Bank of China, also said that in order to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China, the scale of capital needed should be in the trillions of billions. You must know that China’s annual GDP has just exceeded 100 trillion yuan, which shows how big the carbon neutrality project is.

中金公司测算为了实现碳中和目标，需要139万亿资金。这相当于在未来40年里，平均每年的绿色投资需求要占到中国GDP总量的2%，跟当前的整个信息产业规模差不多了（2020年GDP里信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业3.8万亿）。

CICC estimates that in order to achieve the carbon neutrality goal, 139 trillion capital is needed. This means that in the next 40 years, the average annual green investment demand will account for 2% of China’s total GDP, which is similar to the current scale of the entire information industry (information transmission, software and information technology services in 2020 GDP 3.8%) trillions).

中金公司还做了细化：2030年碳达峰之前的10年，中国每年的投资需求大概是2.2万亿，总共22万亿。碳达峰到碳中和的这30年，每年的年化投资需求是3.9万亿。

CICC also made details: 10 years before the carbon peak in 2030, China’s annual investment demand is about 2.2 trillion, a total of 22 trillion. In the 30 years from carbon peak to carbon neutrality, the annual investment demand is 3.9 trillion yuan.

碳达峰：108亿吨 Carbon peak: 10.8 billion tons

等到碳达峰的2030年，中国的排放峰值会到多少呢？按照中金公司的模型测算，是108亿吨。

When carbon peaks in 2030, how much will China’s emissions peak? According to CICC’s model, it is 10.8 billion tons.

美国在2005年就实现了碳达峰，峰值是61亿吨；欧盟成员国更早，在1979年就达到了碳排放峰值，41亿吨。如果中国按照108亿吨这个峰值来行进，比美国和欧盟都要高不少，貌似还有不少排放空间可以用来发展产业。

The United States achieved a carbon peak in 2005, with a peak of 6.1 billion tons; EU member states reached a carbon emission peak earlier in 1979, with a peak of 4.1 billion tons. If China follows the peak of 10.8 billion tons, which is much higher than the United States and the European Union, it seems that there is still a lot of emission space that can be used to develop industries.

真的是这样吗？还真不是。中国2020年的排放量就已经是98.99亿吨了。用108亿吨去推算，这十年年均只有不到1%的增量空间。而这不到1%的碳排放增量，却要支撑5%的GDP平均增量，压力很大。

Is it really? Not really. China’s emissions in 2020 are already 9.899 billion tons. Using 10.8 billion tons to calculate, there is only less than 1% increase space per year in this decade. This is less than 1% of the carbon emission increase, but it has to support the average GDP increase of 5%, which is under great pressure.

更重要的是，中国的碳达峰峰值远高于欧美，这就会导致我们后半场的碳中和难度更大。欧洲碳达峰到碳中和时间限制是71年，美国是45年，而中国只有30年。这就相当于一个下楼考试。欧盟要从41米高的楼顶，花7.1分钟下来；美国要从61米高的楼顶花4.5分钟下来；中国却要从108米高的楼顶，花3分钟下来。

More importantly, China’s carbon peak is much higher than that of Europe and the United States, which will make carbon neutralization more difficult for us in the second half. The time limit for carbon peaking to carbon neutrality in Europe is 71 years, the US is 45 years, and China is only 30 years. This is equivalent to a downstairs exam. The European Union takes 7.1 minutes to get down from the 41-meter-high roof; the United States takes 4.5 minutes to get down from the 61-meter-high roof; China takes 3 minutes to get down from the 108-meter-high roof.

怎么才能做到呢？碳交易要搞起来，社会治理要跟上，清洁能源和碳捕集这类技术和产业的绿色投资也要跟上。所以，下一个请你记住的大指标是：人民币139万亿元的投资规模。

How can this be done? Carbon trading must be carried out, social governance must keep up, and green investments in technologies and industries such as clean energy and carbon capture must also keep up. So, the next big indicator to keep in mind is the investment scale of RMB 139 trillion.

碳中和对个体的影响 The impact of carbon neutrality on individuals

碳中和会给个体带来什么影响呢？这个个体，可以是个人，也可以是企业。我认为，最起码有两方面值得你注意。

How does carbon neutrality affect individuals? This individual can be an individual or an enterprise. I think there are at least two things that deserve your attention.

第一，对于个人和企业来说，未来的生活、生产成本可能会上升。

First, for individuals and businesses, the cost of living and production may rise in the future.

随着碳中和的进一步推进，燃煤的退出，短期内电力成本会上升，这会提高用电成本。特别是一些耗能、高排放产业，要绿色转型的话，需要额外付出成本。当生产成本高了，消费者买东西的价格也会上升。我们要做好心理准备。当然随着绿色技术成熟，成本也会逐渐下降。

With the further advance of carbon neutrality and the withdrawal of coal burning, the cost of electricity will rise in the short term, which will increase the cost of electricity consumption. In particular, some energy-consuming and high-emission industries need to pay extra costs for green transformation. When the cost of production is high, the price for consumers to buy things will also go up. We have to be mentally prepared. Of course, as the green technology matures, the cost will gradually decrease.

第二，未来会催生一大批绿色产业机遇。

Second, there will be a large number of green industry opportunities in the future.

比如，近期我国在推广屋顶光伏试点，要在农村居民、学校、医院的房顶上安光伏板，还有发展风能、氢能等。这些新能源行业对于个人和企业，都是很有潜力的发展方向。对于传统能源企业来说，也要绿色低碳转型，金融业也要研 发绿色金融产品，这里都有商业机会。

For example, my country is currently promoting rooftop photovoltaic pilot projects, installing photovoltaic panels on the roofs of rural residents, schools, and hospitals, as well as developing wind energy and hydrogen energy. These new energy industries are potential development directions for individuals and enterprises. For traditional energy companies, green and low-carbon transformation is also required, and the financial industry also needs to develop green financial products. There are business opportunities here.

碳中和是第三次能源革命 Carbon neutrality is the third energy revolution

引领人类下一次技术革命的是什么，世界上已经争论很久，有人说是 5G，有人说是基因工程，有人说是区块链，有一种声音越来越大：人类的下一次技术革命是能源革命。

What will lead the next technological revolution of mankind, the world has been debating for a long time, some people say it is 5G, some people say it is genetic engineering, some people say it is blockchain, there is a voice that is getting louder and louder:the next technological revolution of mankind is energy revolution.

回望历史，人类历史上爆发过两次能源革命。第一次是蒸汽机的发明，让煤炭成为工业基础，成就了英国。

Looking back at history, there have been two energy revolutions in human history. The first was the invention of the steam engine, which made coal the basis of industry and made Britain.

第二次是内燃机的发明， 让石油成为工业血液，成就了美国。美国让美元和石油挂钩，创造出了美元霸权，又让美元成为石油时代的寄生虫，疯狂吸食全球财富。

The second time was the invention of the internal combustion engine, which made oil the blood of the industry and made the United States successful. The U.S. linked the U.S. dollar to oil, creating U.S. dollar hegemony, and making the U.S. dollar a parasite in the oil age, madly sucking global wealth.

未来，当中国主要实现了清洁能源，不再用过多的美元购买中东石油的时候，美国的霸权将会塌陷一半以上。这就是碳中和对中国来讲，是关乎国运的一个独特的解释角度。

In the future, when China mainly realizes clean energy and no longer uses too many dollars to buy oil in the Middle East, the hegemony of the United States will collapse by more than half. This is carbon neutrality. For China, it is a unique interpretation angle related to the national destiny.

中国错过了第一二次能源革命，再不能错过第三次。碳中和带来的这场清洁能源革命，就是一次新的机遇。现在我国的光伏、风能产业， 已经全球领先。2020 年全球前20的光伏企业，15家都是中国的，现在基本不用政府补贴就能运转起来。

China missed the first and second energy revolutions, and can’t miss the third. The clean energy revolution brought about by carbon neutrality is a new opportunity. Now my country’s photovoltaic and wind energy industries are leading the world. In 2020, 15 of the top 20 photovoltaic companies in the world are Chinese, and now they can basically operate without government subsidies.

我国的特高压技术也世界领先。要知道，特高压技术手册和业界标准都是从中文翻译成英文的。有了特高压，这些风力发的电，光伏发的电，就可以长距离传输，甚至可以世界组 ，传输到国外。

China’s UHV technology also leads the world. Be aware that UHV technical manuals and industry standards are translated from Chinese to English. With UHV, the electricity generated by wind power and photovoltaic can be transmitted over long distances, and can even be networked around the world and transmitted to foreign countries.

中国的电动车、电池领域也领先全球。这些技术的发展也让我们有了底气，敢于做出实现碳中和的承诺。

China also leads the world in the field of electric vehicles and batteries. The development of these technologies has also given us the confidence to make a commitment to achieving carbon neutrality.

我们今天分析了何谓“碳中和”，以及中国实现碳中和的目标和成本。碳中和不只是一个环保问题，还是一个大国博弈的问题，也是影响到每一个公司和个体的问题，值得大家持续关注。

Today we analyze what “carbon neutrality” means, as well as China’s goals and costs to achieve carbon neutrality. Carbon neutrality is not only an environmental protection issue, but also an issue of the game between great powers. It is also an issue that affects every company and individual, and deserves our continued attention.